BY AJ TRAGER
Over 100 people gathered at Washtenaw Community College for the Dec. 7 meeting to discuss Fair Michigan.
ANN ARBOR Over 100 people from across the state, including activists, elected officials and political operatives gathered Monday night at an event organized by the Jim Toy Community Center, located in Ann Arbor. Billed as the "Proposed Ballot Initiative Community Conversation" the event was primarily a presentation by attorney Dana Nessel, co-chair of Fair Michigan – a bipartisan ballot committee that would add sexual orientation and gender identity and expression to the equal protection clause of the Michigan constitution.
But questions raised about polling methodologies and the widely different results from at least two different analyses of the electorate prompted political experts to call for a deeper look at all the numbers before moving forward with a costly, ambitious ballot initiative.
The four-person panel included Nessel, Mary Pollack, government relations coordinator for the American Association of University Women, Robert Sedler, professor of constitutional law at Wayne State University, and ACLU Transgender Advocacy Project Coordinator Amy Hunter.
The evening's Q&A format allowed for limited discussion as questions came through note cards, which offered no room for follow up questions.
The community meeting came after weeks of unanswered questions to 17 signatories (including the ACLU-Michigan, Equality Michigan, Transgender Michigan, state Sen. Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor), and state House Reps. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo), and Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield)) in a letter calling for collaboration in the movement and another letter to Nessel authored by 40 transgender activists requesting the Fair Michigan team collaborate and include the trans community at the discussion table.
The evening began with opening remarks by Jim Toy provided a sense of community and a reminder that not all conversations are pleasant especially within a family, such as the LGBT community.
"My parents said, 'At the dinner table we never talk about sex, or politics, or religion because it leads to nothing but arguments.' And I've discovered that they were right. And I've also discovered that sex, politics and religion are inseparable. If one comes up, the others inevitably follow. And we're here, I think, because we are responding to the oppressive confluence of sex, politics and religion on our lives. And that confluence is exercised, as we know, through discrimination, harassment and assault on our persons and our property. If I had my way we would transform sex, politics and religion into love, justice and faith in human worth and dignity," said Toy, JTCC's nameske.
Nessel started with a brief overview of the ballot proposal and the reasons she thinks it is a viable option now. She said she is confident of victory, citing the results of a September poll that found support at 68.4 percent from all demographics for amending the constitution to include protections for the LGBT community.
After introductory remarks by the four panelists, State Rep. Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor) and Executive Director of Equality Michigan, Stephanie White then were allowed three minutes each to introduce themselves and address their baseline thoughts regarding the ballot initiative.
Irwin stood in for state Sen. Rebekah Warren, D-Ann Arbor, and acknowledged that with current positioning in the state Legislature, a 2016 amendment to Elliott-Larsen is highly unlikely. He did, however, discuss term limits and highlighted that many Republican representatives are shifting their opinions and becoming more inclusive of the LGBT community.
"You may notice that, last session, a Republican introduced the change to Elliot-Larsen to fix this law for the purposes of equality and that was a big step forward. That tells you what I see up there on a daily basis which is that these Republican legislators, particularly the younger ones, they're realizing that their position on this issue is being overwhelmed by a tidal wave of public opinion," Irwin explained. "And they're looking for a way to change their political future. Because right now they're seeing that if they continue to be bigoted and continue to oppose equality they will have no political future."
White spoke to decision-making criteria for ballot campaigns, highlighting four key questions that she would like to see answered to determine the viability of the proposed campaign: Is there a numerical path to victory? How is this framed in the public's mind? Does our movement have the strength to win a tough campaign? and Do we have the funds to win?
White discussed the difference between polling and modeling and introduced Amy Mello, public engagement director from Freedom for All Americans, who later shared results from a modeling report that paints a radically different picture of the electorate in Michigan than do Fair Michigan's encouraging poll numbers. Rather than a big majority in support, Mello 's group found that in Michigan, the analysis right now shows support at only about 42 percent.
"There was a model done and analyzed here in Michigan. This model predicted Houston's result within two points," said Mello. "We have found that polling is often higher support because the issue, in general, feels like something that people would support."
Mello implored the panel to look hard at all the numbers before committing to such a significant campaign. "There are a lot of factors that go into decisions like this but I think it's important that we recognize that there are other numbers out there and that this one would show a gap of about 730,000 votes meaning we'd need to change 365,000 minds. That is a pretty gargantuan feat that at least should be something that we're considering, these other statistics, as we move forward," Mello said.
Experts estimate that the proposed initiative would cost anywhere from $12-25 million.
Fair Michigan's Case
Nessel then made her presentation and explained why she decided the ballot proposal to be necessary and described her experiences since the DeBoer v. Snyder marriage trial. She said she is frustrated by the lack of legal remedies for many LGBT Michigan residents who have experienced harassment and discrimination, including some who have sought her legal counsel. Nessel's conclusion is that the only logical route is to amend the state constitution, in part because there is no viable legislative option in upcoming years because of Republican control in Lansing.
Nessel described how the ballot proposal would change the language of Article 1 Section 2 of the Michigan constitution to read "Sect. 2. No person shall be denied the equal protection of the laws; nor shall any person be denied the enjoyment of his or her civil or political rights or be discriminated against in the exercise thereof because of religion, race, color, gender, gender identity, sex, sexual orientation, or national origin. The legislature shall implement this section by appropriate legislation. When used in laws of this state prohibiting discriminatory practices or policies based upon sex, race, and other factors, "gender" and "sex" shall be construed to include gender identity and sexual orientation.
"Putting this into the constitution, this would effectively take every law on the books where you list classes and you would be adding in these other classes. This is a great opportunity to do that with everything all at once. We shouldn't squander that opportunity. I really think that by locking arms together and moving forward we can make some tremendous progress," Nessel said.
"Rights don't drop out of the sky. You have to go out and get them somehow," Nessel said. "You can achieve rights. I hear people say that we shouldn't be voting on anyone civil rights but the fact of the matter is someone is always voting on your civil rights."
What Next?
Closing remarks were delivered by former Congressman and former gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer. Schauer suggested a conversation be held out of the public eye within the next week and a half between Fair Michigan and the LGBT community to further discuss the polling and modeling research and the find best road forward.
"It is going to be awhile before things change in Lansing, but we cannot understate the importance of educating and bringing along these very same legislators and holding them accountable for their views that are really out of sync with the attitudes and values of our state," Schauer said.
Changing 350,000 minds is a significant task, said Hunter who cited a recent GLAAD poll that found only 8-16 percent of the population thinks they know a trans person. Hunter said she is worried about educating the public and spreading awareness of the transgender community within the crucible of a nasty campaign that will surely use the men-in-women's bathrooms meme, a message that has proven to be an effective weapon against trans people and LGBT equality.
"If those people don't even think they know a trans person, how do you, in this period of time, actually message effectively to them in a way that inoculates the entire population against that hateful messaging? Any nondiscrimination measure will now nationally be about bathrooms. It is the opposition messaging that works," Hunter said.
Members of the audience included representatives from Perceptions, LGBT Detroit, Equality Michigan, Affirmations' Trans Sisters of Color Project, the ACLU of Michigan, Ruth Ellis Center, The Victory Fund, The LGBT Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party, Eastern Michigan University's Equality Research Center and members of the state Legislature.
Not all questions could have possibly gotten answered in the 1.5 hour time frame; however, the questions will be posted to the Jim Toy Community Center's Facebook page and the public is encouraged to participate in a civil discussion.
Fair Michigan is comprised of co-chairs Dana Nessel and Richard McLellan and Arena Communications, The Edelson Group, The Glengariff Group, Truscott Rossman Group and Joe Slade White And Company. To find out more about Fair Michigan visit the website at http://www.fairmichigan.org.
Earlier Reporting and Commentary
DeBoer Attorney Launches LGBT Equal Protection Ballot Measure
National And State LGBT Orgs Urge Caution On 2016 Ballot Initiative
An Open Letter To Dana Nessel, From The Transgender Community of Michigan
News Analysis: The Pre-ballot Battle
Commentary: Can And Should We Fight For LGBT Civil Rights At The Ballot Box?
Viewpoint: It's Better To Be Pissed Off Than Pissed On by Howard Israel
