by Rex Wockner
A second Field Poll has found that Californians do not plan to amend the state constitution Nov. 4 to re-ban same-sex marriage.
Poll results released July 18 showed that 51 percent of likely voters will oppose Proposition 8 and only 42 percent plan to vote for it.
The numbers are similar to those of an earlier Field Poll on the proposition.
Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said the numbers mean there is a 90 percent chance the proposition will fail on election day.
“Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition,” he told The San Diego Union-Tribune. “Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down.”
Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said they plan to vote for the measure, while 63 percent of Democrats said they will vote against it.
In an unusual twist, the poll found the strongest opposition to the initiative among voters between ages 50 and 64 — the Americans whose social attitudes might have been most directly affected by the sexual revolution of the 1960s. In that group, 57 percent will vote against the referendum and only 38 percent plan to vote for it.
The huge, pivotal Southern California counties of Orange and San Diego also plan to reject the referendum, with 50 percent of respondents opposing it and 45 percent favoring it.
Anti-gay activists denounced the poll findings as inaccurate, even though the Field Poll is considered highly reputable. Pollsters said the results’ margin of possible error was 3.9 percentage points.
The California Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in May, and weddings began on June 16. The court said banning same-sex couples from marrying violated the state constitution.